So What's the Deal With The Singularity Again?
Performing Research on Complex ThemesA quick recap; ‘Singularitarians’ (with a capital ‘S’) are people who believe that in a decade or three, technological intelligence will supersede biological intelligence because of the “Law of Accelerating Returns”. This ‘law’ claims that technological progress is increasing exponentially, with the result that at a certain point in time the increase blows off the charts and becomes infinite. This point has been argued with meticulous zeal by Ray Kurzweil, the well-known American entrepreneur and futurologist. On example graph from his 2005 book “The Singularity is Near”, which was amongst others a New York Times bestseller, demonstrates his point ( Kurzweil 2005 ):
The first graph shows the ‘Countdown to Singularity’ in its most dramatic form, while the other graph shows the same in a log-log plot. Either way, the ‘time to the next event’ comes quicker and quicker and soon will be described in minutes and seconds rather than years or decades. These events correspond with ‘canonical milestones’ in the evolution of human intelligence, and as the more recent events correspond with technological innovations, Kurzweil’s claim –and other Singularitarians beside him- is that the evolution of technological ‘intelligence’ will take over biological intelligence. A new ‘epoch’ of human existence will arrive where we transcend our current limitations and become hyper-intelligent beings. Kurzweil presents a plethora of similar graphs in his book to support this claim.
Some ProblemsThere are a few problems that I have with this line of reasoning. First, when presenting patterns like these exponential curves, one has to realise that they are all existential proofs which cannot be scientifically falsified. However many of these curves are presented, there is a chance that they all boil down to one underlying process that is driving the acceleration. To make my point, I will present one of my own below.
This graph shows the amount of worldwide deaths, or ‘crude death rate’ from 1600 to the expected death rate in 2050. As one can see, the number of deaths is increasing exponentially, so if we follow Kurzweil’s argumentation, we are heading for mass distinction somewhere beyond 2050.Of course we all know that this isn’t true, for there is another process that counters the crude death rate, namely the population growth.
Crude Death Rate - News
This graph shows the amount of worldwide deaths, or 'crude death rate' from 1600 to the expected death rate in 2050. As one can see, the number of deaths is increasing exponentially, so if we follow Kurzweil's argumentation, we are heading for mass
As I noted in my last column, Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) accounts for about 60 percent of the 17000 primary brain tumors diagnosed in the US The age-adjusted GBM death rate is approximate 4.3 per 100000 people per year.
“Certainly as a very crude comparator you could look at whether stroke death rates are higher or lower as a starting point, but it wouldn't necessarily tell you whether it was due to a health service treating people or more to do with primary
Reportedly, the crude death rate on the average is estimated between 9 and 10 per thousand. Illiteracy is still widespread and as much at least 28 per cent of the population lives in absolute poverty, suffering from morbidity and mortality more than
The population growth rate has been affected by a number of issues including fertility and death rates. Mortality has increased by 100% and this has been attributed to HIV and AIDS. The crude death rates increased from 7.6 deaths per 1000 people to
Death rate « Smile for life
Death rate
Death rate is also known as mortality rate. It depends on calculating the number of deaths per year. Death rates would be calculated with different kinds of aspects. Death rate can be distinguished as crude death rate, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, maternal mortality, child mortality, standardized mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate. The crude death rate is calculated by total number of deaths per 1000 people. In the year of July 2009, the death rate of the entire world is considered to be 8.37 per thousand people. Secondly, perinatal mortality rate is calculated by the total sum of neonatal deaths and fetal deaths per thousand births. The maternal mortality rate is calculated by the total number of maternal deaths per 100,000 women on their reproductive age. The child mortality rate is calculated by the total number of deaths of children less than five years old similar to that of 1000 births. The standardized mortality rate (SMR) is the one which depends on calculating the total number of deaths by population. The age-specific mortality rate (ASMR) is calculated by total number of deaths per 1000 people with an age consideration of 62. The death rate is also calculated by number of success and failure cases of medical treatment procedures and it is distinguished as early mortality rate and late mortality rate.
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Social & economic profile of India
CRUDE DEATH RATE Crude death rate is the number of deaths during a particular year per thousand mid-year population. As per the SRS Bulletin (Registrar ...Methods and calculations in hygiene and vital statistics, including the use of logarithms and logarithmic tables
Corrected Death-rate " of the Registrar- General. The correction is made by multiplying the local Recorded Death- rate of the Town (or crude death-rate) by ...Bulletin
The term "corrected death rate" might be understood to imply that the crude rate was incorrect and that allowance had been made for defects in the returns. ...Journal of the Royal Statistical Society
upon the mean duration of life, of the recent decline in the English death-rate, and thus to reply to the inquiries suggested by the " Spectator," Dr. ...Journal of cancer research
In England and Wales the crude death rate from cancer was 58.9 per 100000 in 1881-1890 and 75.8 in 1891-1900, a decennial increase of 16.9, or 28.7 per cent ...Casual News Directory
Mortality rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Crude death rate by country. Mortality rate is a measure of the number of deaths (in ... The crude death rate, the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people. ...
Microsoft Word - Mortality_Crude Final_Lois
CRUDE DEATH RATE is the total number of deaths to residents in a specified geographic area ... This type of crude rate is not appropriate for comparison of different ...
death rate: Definition from Answers.com
death rate n. The ratio of total deaths to total population in a specified community or area over a specified period of time
Crude Death Rate
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Information about Crude death rate in Free online English dictionary. What is Crude death rate? Meaning of Crude death rate medical term. What does Crude ...