Rick Rule & Brent Cook: Gold Correction to Bring Pawnbroker Paradise

Brent Cook:  Several dynamics are involved. Certainly one is that you can now buy gold through exchange traded funds (ETFs). That is a very simple bet on the gold price that does not carry all the baggage that comes with mining the stuff. That baggage includes the almost universal underestimation of development and mining costs published by mining companies, engineering firms and equity analysts. Capital costs are rising sharply due to the basic increase in cement, steel, fuel and everything else that goes into building a mine. Production costs are going up for many of the same reasons, plus rising labor costs. Qualified and experienced people are hard to come by and overworked. The result is lower-quality engineering studies and misses on cost estimates. 

Additionally, with the higher gold price, companies are mining lower-grade ore, which cuts down on margin per ounce produced. Then, we have the almost continual issuance of stock whenever a brokerage firm sees a chance to make a commission. From my dealings with value-oriented funds, this continual dilution from mining companies has been very frustrating and perplexing. Given everything I mentioned, it's not hard to see why the leverage we expected in gold equities at a $1,500 price hasn't materialized. 

TGR:  So, will we ever see the leverage?

BC:  Now is probably a good time to look at mid- to large-tier companies that have good production profiles at the lower end of the production cash costs and high cash flow per share.

TGR:  What's your opinion on that, Rick?

Rick Rule:  With regard to the juniors, everybody looks to the 1970s as the analogue, when we had that huge parabolic rise. That won't happen again. We won't see the circumstances we had in the mid- and late-1970s, when there was a shortage of stock. The industry now has the infrastructure to print paper-stock certificates-faster than demand can ever develop.

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